Weather Alert in Texas
Hydrologic Outlook issued May 28 at 3:50PM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX
AREAS AFFECTED: Brooks, TX
DESCRIPTION: ESFBRO The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in Deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.3 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [05/28/2025 - 08/26/2025] Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Los Olmos Creek Falfurrias 11.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.1 3.9 5.4 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued by the third Thursday of every month. Outlooks may be issued more than once a month.
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Weather Topic: What is Hail?
Home - Education - Precipitation - Hail
Next Topic: Hole Punch Clouds
Hail is a form of precipitation which is recognized by large solid balls or
clumps of ice. Hail is created by thunderstorm clouds with strong updrafts of wind.
As the hailstones remain in the updraft, ice is deposited onto them until their
weight becomes heavy enough for them to fall to the earth's surface.
Hail storms can cause significant damage to crops, aircrafts, and man-made structures,
despite the fact that the duration is usually less than ten minutes.
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Weather Topic: What are Mammatus Clouds?
Home - Education - Cloud Types - Mammatus Clouds
Next Topic: Nimbostratus Clouds
A mammatus cloud is a cloud with a unique feature which resembles
a web of pouches hanging along the base of the cloud.
In the United States, mammatus clouds tend to form in the warmer months, commonly
in the Midwest and eastern regions.
While they usually form at the bottom of a cumulonimbis cloud, they can also form
under altostratus, altocumulus, stratocumulus, and cirrus clouds. Mammatus clouds
warn that severe weather is close.
Next Topic: Nimbostratus Clouds
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